|Ángel Pascual Ramsay||Dirección General y Estrategia||ENG|
1. COURSE SESSIONSPROVISIONAL COURSE SESSIONS
1. Introduction: global trends and why they matter to business (I)
In this first session we will, after taking care of the logistics, go through an overview of how the world is changing and why this is relevant to business. Key `mega trends' are creating a very different world to the one we have known up until now. These trends are increasingly shaping the business environment within which firms operate and the ability to incorporate them into your business analysis will be, in the years to come, the key difference between mere tactics and real strategy.
- Oxford Martin School. `Now for the long term: the Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations¿. (pp 12-24)
- Bach, D and Allen, B. 2010. ¿What Every CEO Needs to Know About Nonmarket Strategy¿. MIT Sloan Management Review. Spring 2010.
- McKinsey Quarterly¿¿Management intuition for the next 50 years¿. Sept ` 14
- National Intelligence Council. 2011. ¿Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds¿ (Executive Summary, pages i-xiv)
2. Global trends and why they matter to business (II): global and political risks
The trends that we will be studying in the course will generate great new opportunities for business but also significant risks. You will have many other courses that highlight the opportunities available; you should also get an insight into some of the risks, and that is what we will do in this session. Whether emanating from the role of national political actors (expropriation, capital controls,¿) or global phenomena (global financial crisis, cyber-risks, pandemics,¿) these risks can all have an existential impact on businesses.
- Bremmer, I., 2013. ¿Managing Risk in an Unstable World¿. Harvard Business Review. June 2005. pp. 1¿ 9.
- World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2016 (Executive Summary)
- Lamarre, Eric, and Martin Pergler. "Risk: Seeing around the Corners" McKinsey Quarterly 2009: 1-7 (to see how political risk fits within the larger risk dynamics of a business)
- HBS (1997). Note on Political Risk Analysis (good historical perspective)
Case for class discussion: Repsol
KEY GLOBAL TRENDS:
3. Geopolitics: a G-0 world
The geopolitical stability of the last part of the 20th century is gone. We are immersed in an era of moving geopolitical tectonic plaques, which is giving way to a completely different political and strategic context. This session will help you understand the key geopolitical trends defining the new world order of the 21st century.
- `A G-Zero World¿, by Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini. Foreign Affairs, Mar/Apr2011, Vol. 90, Issue 2
- Luttwak, E., 1990. ¿From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce¿. The National Interest, pp.1¿6
- Eurasia Group Top Risks 2014
- Rachman, G. `Why investors are ignoring war, terror and turmoil¿. Financial Times, September 8, 2014.
Group Presentation: Ukraine
- Ukraine: On the Border of Europe and Eurasia
4. Global Economy: a new equilibrium
The shape of economic globalization is changing. China just overtook the US as the largest economy in the world. Factors like the rise of other emerging markets, state capitalism, the increasing role of sovereign wealth funds or the challenges of global economic governance are all contributing to a very different macroeconomic landscape for business.
- PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2013). ¿World in 2050. The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities¿, London. (Executive Summary)
- Rodrik, D. `Death by Finance¿. Project Syndicate, February 2014.
- Rodrik, D. `Don¿t count on global governance¿.Project Syndicate, Nov 2010
- INSEAD (2014) `The Globalization of the Renminbi¿
Case: Two Key Decisions for China¿s Sovereign Wealth Fund
Group Presentation: Beyond the BRICS: Frontier Markets
- FTSE (2014). `Frontier Markets: Accessing the next frontier¿. FTSE Papers
5. Technology and innovation: the third (non) industrial revolution
Disruptive technologies are changing the way we live and do business. This era of transformation has barely begun. Advances in information technology, genetics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotization and computerization will create in the near future a very different world from today¿s. Technology is both cause and consequence of innovation and innovation will be the pillar of the new economic paradigm that will substitute the industrial age.
- Wolf, Martin. `A much-maligned engine of innovation¿. Financial Times, 4 August 2013
- US National Intelligence Council, 2008. `Disruptive Civil Technologies: Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US Interests out to 2025¿. (Executive Summary, pp. i-v)
- World Economic Forum, `Global Risks Report 2014¿ (pp. 38-41)
- Financial Times. `German fears of China cyber spying reinforced by US charges¿, May 2014
- MckInsey Quarterly. `Artificial Intelligence meets the C-suite¿ September 2014
Group Presentation: Robotization and the risk of job-less growth
- Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A. (2013). ¿The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?¿. University of Oxford, Oxford.
6. Demographic changes: urbanization, aging and the new middle class
Demography is one of the most powerful drivers of change. It is slow moving but its impact is profound and long lasting. Today we are living in the mist of a great demographic transformation. The world is getting older and more urban. Add to this other social changes like the increasing presence of women in the work force and the advent of a new global middle class in emerging nations and you have the ingredients of a great transformation for society and business through drivers such as changing consumption patterns, new growth markets and a very different composition of the work-force. In this session we will look at some of these trends and the effect they will have on business.
- Erkfurt, J, Peppes, A and Purdy, M. `Demography and Destiny: Embracing Population Aging to Create Value¿, Rotman Magazine, July 2013
- Lingdart, Z et al `Unlocking Growth in the Middle: How to Capture the Critical Middle Class in Emerging Markets¿. Rotman Magazine Spring 2013
- Gertz, G. & Kharas, H. (2010). The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East. Brookings Institution, Washington.
Group presentation: Demography and geopolitics
- Jackson, Richard, and Howe (2008). The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies.
Simulation with Gapminder
7. Social and political shifts: a change of paradigm?
This session will look at some of the most salient global social and political trends into issues such as new models of economic management or inequality, how the effect they are having on the global economy and society.
- Stiglitz, J. ¿The Price of Inequality¿. Project Syndicate, 5/06/2012
- Rodrik, D. `The New Mercantilist Challenge¿. Project Syndicate, January 19 2013
- The Economist. `Does rising all boats lift the tide?¿ April 2014
- CIPD (2013). ¿Megatrends defining work in the 21st century¿, London
Group Presentation: The impact of rising inequality
- Krugman, P. `Why we are in a new gilded age. Review of Thomas Piketty¿s Capital in the Twenty First Century¿. New York Review of Books, May 8 2014
8. Resources and sustainability: energy, the race for resources and climate change
Each industrial revolution has been preceded and made possible by a transformation in energy resources. Today we are again in the mist of one, with new sources, from renewables to fracking, transforming the energy landscape. This is just one example of the race for resources that, as the world strives to maintain a growing population, will be one of the defining trends, and causes of conflict, of the 21st century. Both energy and resource consumption, are also at the heart of one of the greatest unanswered challenges of our time: climate change.
- BP (2013). ¿Energy Outlook 2035¿, London. (Global Energy Trends section, pp 7-23)
- Jakobson, L. (2010) China Prepares for an Ice-Free Arctic. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Case discussion: Shaping the future of solar power: Climate Change, Industrial Policy and Free Trade (Harvard Kennedy School, 2012)
Group Presentation: Fracking
- Aly Sergie, Mohammed. `Backgrounders. Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking). Council of Foreign Relations. October 2013
- Food & Water Watch. 2014. `The urgent case for a ban on fracking¿ (Executive Summary, Introduction and Conclusion)
9. Applying geostrategic thinking to business: forecasting and scenario building
In the first of the concluding sessions we will introduce two key tools (forecasting and scenario building) to put into practice what we have learnt over the preceding sessions and illustrate how global trends can be incorporated into the decision making process in business organizations.
- Saffo, Paul. "Six Rules for Effective Forecasting." Harvard Business Review. July-August (2007): 1-11.
- Wilburn, Kathlen & Wilburn, Ralph (2011). `Abbreviated Scenario Thinking¿
- Kaplan, Robert. (2014) `On Forecasting¿. Stratfor Global Intelligence
Group Presentation: The new face of forecasting
- Harford, Tim. `How to see into the future¿. Financial Times, Sept. 2014
- Stanley, Aaron. 'With Wikistrat, crowdsourcing gets geopolitical'. Financial Times. September 2014.
Class simulation: The Zurich Risk Room
10. Where is the world going? Plausible scenarios
We will finish the course with a class discussion in which we will speculate about the most plausible worlds that present global trends might lead to and what each might mean to business. It will also form the basis of your final individual exercise.
- National Intelligence Council. 2011. ¿Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds¿ (Chapter 3, pp 110-136)
- Price Waterhouse Coopers. `Spain in the world 2033¿ (English Executive Summary, pp 7-11)
Group Presentation: Drivers of change
|Ángel Pascual Ramsay||Dirección General y Estrategia|