Political Risk Analysis, Geo-Economics, and Global Business

Group	Teacher	Department	Language
	Angel Pascual Ramsay	Dirección General y Estrategia	ENG

CONTENT

1. Introduction In this first section of the course we will get to know each other and the subject. What are global risks, country risks and political risks? What are the differences? Why do they matter for business firms in the 21st century?
2. Fundamentals of Political Risk Analysis Introduction to frameworks and tools to incorporate political risk and intelligence analysis to business strategy and investment decisions.
3. Geopolitical and Security Risks The geopolitical stability of the last part of the 20th century is gone. We are immersed in an era of changing geopolitical tectonic plaques, which is giving rise to new risks that will aect businesses. To this one must add global security risks which now as always can have a signicant impact on business operations. The session will cover traditional sources of security risk to business, such as terrorism, wars or revolutions, as well as more novel ones such as cybersecurity. It will also look at how the new global governance order, or the lack of one, has signicant impact on the context within which business operates.
4. Political Economy Risks Possibly the most important dimension of the present episode of globalization is the economic interconnectedness it has enabled. This has allowed unparalleled wealth- creation but has also led to pervasive global economic risks. In this session we will analyze some of these key risks and how they impact on businesses and their strategies, paying special attention to macroeconomic, nancial, governance and geo- economic issues. We will explore in details issues relating to GeoEconomics as well as specic case studies of global or regional economic phenomena generating risks for business, such as the Euro crisis
5. Technology and Political Risks The convergence of a wide set of technologies is heralding a fourth industrial revolution. While this paradigmatic change brings forth many opportunities for growth and prosperity it also creates signicant new risks for business and for society. This session will look into how some of these issues, such as robotization, articial intelligence or energy-related technologies can generate new risks that are essential to consider for our future.
6. Social and Ideological Political Risk Political risks often have their origin in social phenomena. Issues such as the changing demographics, increasing inequality and associated pervasive discontent, and the political instability these breed, including its manifestation as populist political ideologies and parties, are all potential sources of risks for business organisations and society in general.
7. Micro Political Risks: breach of contract, expropriations & regulatory uncertainty In an age in which internationalization to markets with high levels of political risk a good understanding of the mechanisms through which it can affect business firms is increasingly becoming essential.
8. Macro Political Risks: sovereign default & capital controls In the aftermath of the Global Recession, political risks associated with macroeconomic factors are back in the agenda. All future managers should have a solid understanding of the way in which they can affect business.
9. Managing Political Risk (I) In the last two sessions of the course we will introduce some key tools that can help us manage political risk and thus apply the lessons learned through the course. We will finish by analyzing a case study that illustrates the potential impact of political risk.
10. Managing political risk (II)

1. Introduction

In this first section of the course we will get to know each other and the subject. What are global risks, country risks and political risks? What are the differences? Why do they matter for business firms in the 21st century?

2. Fundamentals of Political Risk Analysis

Introduction to frameworks and tools to incorporate political risk and intelligence analysis to business strategy and investment decisions.

3. Geopolitical and Security Risks

The geopolitical stability of the last part of the 20th century is gone. We are immersed in an era of changing geopolitical tectonic plaques, which is giving rise to new risks that will aect businesses. To this one must add global security risks which now as always can have a signicant impact on business operations. The session will cover traditional sources of security risk to business, such as terrorism, wars or revolutions, as well as more novel ones such as cybersecurity. It will also look at how the new global governance order, or the lack of one, has signicant impact on the context within which business operates.

4. Political Economy Risks

Possibly the most important dimension of the present episode of globalization is the economic interconnectedness it has enabled. This has allowed unparalleled wealth- creation but has also led to pervasive global economic risks. In this session we will analyze some of these key risks and how they impact on businesses and their strategies, paying special attention to macroeconomic, nancial, governance and geo- economic issues. We will explore in details issues relating to GeoEconomics as well as specic case studies of global or regional economic phenomena generating risks for business, such as the Euro crisis

5. Technology and Political Risks

The convergence of a wide set of technologies is heralding a fourth industrial revolution. While this paradigmatic change brings forth many opportunities for growth and prosperity it also creates signicant new risks for business and for society. This session will look into how some of these issues, such as robotization, articial intelligence or energy-related technologies can generate new risks that are essential to consider for our future.

6. Social and Ideological Political Risk

Political risks often have their origin in social phenomena. Issues such as the changing demographics, increasing inequality and associated pervasive discontent, and the political instability these breed, including its manifestation as populist political ideologies and parties, are all potential sources of risks for business organisations and society in general.

7. Micro Political Risks: breach of contract, expropriations & regulatory uncertainty

In an age in which internationalization to markets with high levels of political risk a good understanding of the mechanisms through which it can affect business firms is increasingly becoming essential.

8. Macro Political Risks: sovereign default & capital controls

In the aftermath of the Global Recession, political risks associated with macroeconomic factors are back in the agenda. All future managers should have a solid understanding of the way in which they can affect business.

9. Managing Political Risk (I)

In the last two sessions of the course we will introduce some key tools that can help us manage political risk and thus apply the lessons learned through the course. We will finish by analyzing a case study that illustrates the potential impact of political risk.

10. Managing political risk (II)

Methodology

The course will use the following methodology:
Lectures
Reading discussions
Case-studies
Group presentations

Description	%
Group work and presentations	35
Final exercise	50
Class participation	15

Bibliography

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Cornelius, Peter, Alexander Van de Putte, and Matti Romani. 2005. Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell. California Management Review 48.1: 92-109.
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Fiott, D., 2012. Geopolitical implications of Euro crisis.
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The Economist. 2010. Not up in the air: Risk-management lessons from the volcanic ash cloud, April 20th, 2010.

Type:	OP	Curs:	1	Period:	S semester
ECTS Credits:	3 ECTS

Political Risk Analysis, Geo-Economics, and Global Business (CF85556)

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