Course Learning Objectives
- Gain exposure to 'big picture' approaches to the strategic context to identify the key choices that constitute strategy
- Understand the power of scenarios to navigate pervasive uncertainty
- Learn about different ways of thinking creatively about strategy by looking at future challenges and opportunities through scenarios
- Explore how scenarios have been used to draw strategic insights and generate competitive advantage.
- AND provide a hands-on experience in developing scenarios for an industry or sector and extract mplications for a specific company
Bibliography
Mainly for background, not required reading.
The best sources are actual scenario exercises:
- Global Trends 2030 Scenario by National Intelligence Council
http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030
and http://gt2030.com/about/
- Future of Energy ('New Lens' scenarios and older ones) - SHELL http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html
also Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers http://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures/ar/1
- WEF "Communities" http://www.weforum.org/community/strategic-foresight
- Connected World (Transport scenarios) WEF and BCG
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_MO_ConnectedWorld_Report_2013.pdf
- The Evolving Internet (2025 scenarios) CISCO and GBN
http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/ekits/Evolving_Internet_GBN_Cisco_2010_Aug.pdf
summarized/complemented in the Strategy&&Leadership article I wrote with D. Derosby
- Climate Change and US Security (P. Schwartz and D. Randall for the Pentagon)
http://www.climate.org/PDF/clim_change_scenario.pdf
- Future of Europe
http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/global-europe-2050-summary-report_en.pdf
- Cybersecurity https://cltc.berkeley.edu/scenarios/
Articles and books
Pierre Wack. You can start with this summary article by Art Kleiner http://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220 and then go to the two original 1985 HBR articles.
A good scenario process introduction is P. Schoemaker's 1995 piece http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for-strategic-thinking
- The Art of the Long View and Learnings from the Long View (Peter Schwartz-1996 edition)
- The Fox Trilogy (Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter)
- Transformative Scenario Planning (Adam Kahane, 2012)
- Scenarios - The Art of Strategic Conversation (Kees van der Heijden-2005 edition)
- Creating Better Futures - Scenario Planning for a Better Tomorrow (Jay Ogilvy, 2002)
- Thinking in New Boxes (Alan Iny and Luc de Brabandere, 2013)
- Strategic Reframing (R. Ramirez and A. Wilkinson, 2016)
Finally, attempts to theorize around scenarios have not proven very useful ... but you can get a sense of them in http://www.thomaschermack.com/Thomas_Chermack_-_Scenario_Planning/Research_files/ReviewofSP.PDF and in other work by Thomas Chermak (his 2011 Scenario Planning book also has a good bibliography)
